March ny World Sugar #11 (SBH25) grew today +0.24 ( +1.09%) and December London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWZ24) is higher +7.90 ( +1.42%).
Sugar prices are now in Brazilian real (^USDBRL) at 2-1/2 weeks high, up to 2-1/2 weeks high compared to short sugar coverage in Brazilian Real (^USDBrl) for 2-1/2 weeks. Stronger actual discouragement from export sales from Brazilian sugar manufacturers.
Sugar has recently been under pressure, with NY sugar broadcasting two-week low Monday and London Sugar broadcast 1-1/2-month Wednesday on forecasts for beneficial rain in the Brazilian center-South, which relieves dryness of dryness. Forecaster Climatepo said that the rain will continue this week in the Brazilian center-jihu. The Brazilian Center-South is the area of sugar production in the country.
Excessive long positions in London sugar can stimulate long disposal and worsen any price drop. The report on the last Friday weekly traders’ liability (COT) showed that the funds increased their net London sugar position by 453 per week to Octuber 29 to 42.804 net positions, the most sales data began in 2011.
Sugar factor was a message from Unica 25. Octuber 25, which showed sugar production in the Brazilian center-south area during the first half of October +8% y/y to 2.443 MMT. Also cumulative sugar production on Wednesday 2024/25 in the first half of October +1.9% to 35.591 mmt. Sugar prices are subordinate to Arso after Indian sugar mills have asked the government on Tuesday to allow them to export 2 million MT sugar immediately because of national suppliers.
The recent drought and excessive heat have caused fire in Brazil, which damaged sugar crops in the highest Brazilian sugar Sao Paulo. The Industrial Group for Sugar Cane Orplan said up to 2,000 fire outbreaks of up to 80,000 hectares of planting sugar cane took place in Sao Paul. Specialists in the green pool commodities said up to 5 mmt sugar cane could be lost due to fires. Conab, the Brazilian government agency for crop forecasts, reduced its overall estimate of southern sugar production in 2024/25 22. August to 42 mmt from the previous forecast 42.7 MMT, lower sugar cane yields due to drought and excessive heat. Similarly, Rabobank, September 20, reduced sugar production forecasts 2024/25 to 39.3 mmt from the previous prediction 40.3 mmt, excessively quoted dryness. Datagro also reduced its estimate of sugar production of 2024/25 on Monday to 38.7 mmt from the September estimate of 39.3 mmt, quoted drought and limited mill capacity.
Optimime that above -average Monson rains in India will lead to a sugar crop of the bumper at sugar prices. The Indian Meteorology Department said India received 934.8 mm rains to 30 September during the current monsoon season, and 7.6% more than a comparable long -term diameter of 868.6 mm in four years. The Indian Monsoon season runs from June to September.
The Indian Food Ministry on August 30 in the Support Factor for the Prince at the Sugar Prince raised the restriction of sweets producing ethanol for 2024/25 years, which begins in November, which can expand Indian exports. Last December, India ordered Sugar Mills to stop using sugar cane to produce ethanol for 2023/24 to increase their sugar supplies. India limits sugar exports from Octuber 2023 to maintain adequate household needs. India allowed Mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to 30 September after allowing an export of 11.1 mmt in the previous season. However, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Association (ISM) in Octuber 3 said India would have 2 MMT sugar next season and called on the government to raise the current limitation of sugar exports.
The Indian Association of Sugar and Biological Energy Manufacturers (ISM) 13. May announced that the Indian sugar production of 2023/24 of Oct -Apr was to drop -1.6% y/y to 31.4 MMT. Also ISM 26 September Expected sugar production of sugar 2024/25 would drop by -2% y/y to 33.3 mmt and that the Indian sugar reserve 2023/24 will be September 8.4 mmt compared to the May projection of 9.1 mmt.
The view of higher sugar production in Thailand is bear at sugar prices. Last Tuesday, the Thai office office of the Cane and sugar refineries planned to make sugar production 2024/25 by +18% y/y to 10.35 mmt. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT sugar in the 2023/24 season, which ended in April. Thailand is the third sugar producer in the world and the second largest sugar exporter.
In the Support Factor of Sugar Prices of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on August 30, the global sugar deficit marked -3.58 mmt 2024/25, much greater than the estimated -200,000 MT deficit for 2023/24. ISO predicted 2024/25 of global sugar production of 179.3 mmt, drop -1.1% y/y from 181.3 mmt in 2023/24.
In its two -year report published on May 23, it planned that global sugar production of 2024/25 would climb to +1.4% y/y to a record 186.024 MMT and that global consumption of 2024/25 would increase by 0.8% y/y to record 178.788 mmt. USDA predicted that global sugar shares at the end of sugar 2024/25 would drop -4.7% y/y to a 13 -year minimum of 38.339 mmt.
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