December Arabica Coffee (KCZ25) closed +20.80 ( +5.24%) on Monday and November Ice Robusta (RMX25) closed +241 ( +5.24%).
Coffee prices rose on Monday, with Dec Arabica published a contract with high and closest-system (U25) Arabica and published a maximum of 6.75 months. Robusta also published a 3 -week high. The lack of rain in Brazilian areas of coffee cultivation before the critical period of flowering for coffee trees pushes coffee prices to reach much higher. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s large area for growing coffee Arabica, Minas Gerais, ended in a week of 13th September.
Don’t miss the day: From oil to coffee, register for free for Barchart commodity analysis in your class.
The power in Brazilian Real is also a bull for coffee prices, because the real (^USDBrl) on Monday gathered for a 15 -month maximum against the dollar. Stronger actual discouragement from the sale of exports from Brazilian coffee manufacturers.
Concerns about stricter coffee deliveries in the US are bulls at tariffs. American buyers exempt new contracts for purchasing Brazilian coffee beans due to 50% tariffs deposited on American imports from Brazil, giving American supplies, because about a third of American coffee comes from Brazil.
Coffee prices also have support from stricter coffee supplies for ice. On Monday, Arabica supplies monitored on the ice increased to a 16 -month -old minimum of 666,337 bags. Ice Robusta Inventory dropped to 2 -week low Monday to 6.556 batches, just above 7 weeks of 6.552 batches from 28 August.
Coffee prices have found support after Conab, the Brazilian crop prediction agency, reduced its estimate of the coffee crop in Brazil 2025 4. September September by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags of May 37.0 million bags. Conab also reduced its overall estimate of coffee production in Brazil 2025 by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags of 55.7 million bags.
Reports of reduced coffee exports support prices after international coffee organizations (ICO) 3 September said Global July has dropped -1.6% y/y to 11.6 million bag, and cumulative coffee exports -Jul dropped -0.3% y/y to 115.615 million bags.
Harvest pressures in Brazil are bear for coffee prices after Brazil COOXUPE COFFEE CO-OPT announced last Tuesday that the harvest between its members was 97% complete from September 5th. COOXUPE is a Brazilian large coffee cooperative and a large Brazilian group. Safras & Mercado separately said that total Brazil’s total coffee harvest 2025/26 was completed from August 20, before a comparable 98% level last year. The schedule showed that we completed 100% Robusta harvest and 98% of the Arabica harvest from August 20.
Reduced exports from Brazil support prices. On August 6, we announced in Brazil the Ministry of Commerce that in July without cut coffee in Brazil fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 Mt. In related bull news, the Cecafe export group said Brazil’s Green Coffee export in July -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags. Cecafe states that the exports of Arabica in July dropped -21% y/y, while the export of robusta has rushed -49% y/y. Cecafe said in July coffee exports in Brazil fell -28% to 2.7 million bags and that coffee consignments during January -July -21% to 22.2 million bags.
As a result of drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2023/24 decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 mmt, which is the smallest crop in four years. Vietnam’s General Statistics Office also reports that the export of coffee in Vietnam 2024 dropped by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 mmt. In addition, Vietnamese coffee and cocoa associations reduced the estimate of the 2024/25 coffee production to 26.5 million bags 12. March, from December estimate of 28 million bags. On the other hand, the Vietnam National Statistical Office announced last Monday that the export of coffee from Jan 2025 from Vietnam increased by 7.8% to 1.141 mmt.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) screened on June 25 that the world’s coffee production in 2025/26 increases by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% reduction in Arabica production to 97.022 million A +7.9% in Robusta 81 658 million. FAS assumed that the production of 2025/26 coffee in Brazil would increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnamese coffee production of 2025/26 will increase by 6.9% y/y to 4-Yy a maximum of 31 million bags. The FAS predicts that the end stock of 2025/26 in 2024/25 disappears by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags. However, Volcafe projects the global Arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million Arabica bags, wider than -5.5 million deficits in bags for 2024/25 and the fifth sacred year of deficits.
At the date of publication, Rich had no asplund (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities listed in this article. All information and data in this article are exclusively for information purposes. For more information, see Barchart HERE.
More news from Barchart
Opinions and opinions here are explicitly the opinions and opinions of the author and do not require the views of Nasdaq, Inc.
